Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
